tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.comments2011-04-14T04:11:10.206-04:00Eriknoreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-46237472290878067962009-03-05T14:23:00.000-05:002009-03-05T14:23:00.000-05:00"some people stay in government and University due to fear as for any noble purpose. And judging by his comments so far, competition scares him."<BR/><BR/>Due me a favor and spare me partisanship - I wrote the piece to address comments/attitudes like these. <BR/><BR/>I would argue it is far easier to "hide in the weeds" at some bank or fund than to keep yourself out in the cross hairs - especially during a crisis! Here is a guy who could have had ANY job (out of view - in view) in the private sector making millions, yet decided to remain as a civil servant. <BR/><BR/>And please spare me your macho perspective that this guy cowers to competition - you reek of the righteousness I can't stand hearing anymore. <BR/><BR/>This is a crisis - get pragmatic - get realistic. Stop blaming everyone for what was going to happen anyway. We may have free will individually - but collectively our fates our sealed. They are doing the best they can.Erikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03791137433577690355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-48488210648799096052009-03-04T19:53:00.000-05:002009-03-04T19:53:00.000-05:00Setting Geithner aside for a second, does it bother you that so many of our political appointees are having tax problems? The new trade representative is just the latest. It speaks to a hubris of power that one can create these laws and have no intention of obeying them. This is where I include him in this. If this was you and me, we would be in deep weeds, him it is sluffed off as he is too important to our future. BTW, some people stay in government and University due to fear as for any noble purpose. And judging by his comments so far, competition scares him.robertkudlahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01151101717150834918noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-14787872300575639682009-02-04T20:25:00.000-05:002009-02-04T20:25:00.000-05:00You may be onto something. I am currently short the financials, but one change to the mark to market takes considerable pressure off of these banks.robertkudlahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01151101717150834918noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-2542413796362306262009-01-22T00:28:00.000-05:002009-01-22T00:28:00.000-05:00I hope you are right. I do not think the government will let the banks fail. to do so would doom the market for many years. Long term, I thinks the banks are a buy here.gettem when no one else will touch them. Some would say, Im trying to catch a falling knife.Only time will tell. Thanks for your blog.chronictownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-73980023175556654962009-01-10T10:56:00.000-05:002009-01-10T10:56:00.000-05:00I am actually long the s&amp;p after this week. I think this will run into april/may. <BR/><BR/>there&#39;s so much headline risk going forward, but i think the market will continue to discount it. <BR/><BR/>I have more on trades at tradepostings.blogspot.com. <BR/><BR/>All the best.Erikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03791137433577690355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-82931441907595229632009-01-09T20:21:00.000-05:002009-01-09T20:21:00.000-05:00Hi, if that is your thesis, are you going to ignore the noise and focus on bear positioning? I started last week and been slowly stopping out my longs. It did not stop me from buying FSLR though as it is breaking out here. But the whips are exhausting and I am buying inverse ETF's with loose stops and selling OTM puts and tightening them a bit every day.robertkudlahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01151101717150834918noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-51120350146060492552009-01-04T00:56:00.000-05:002009-01-04T00:56:00.000-05:00I know what you mean about being too early.<BR/><BR/>I got several friends to invest in techs in the late 90s. When I realized that no tree grows to the sky indefinitely -- and nothing seemed sustainable -- I got out AND TRIED LIKE A MAD DOG to get my friends to leave the party with me.<BR/><BR/>In the end, I left alone.<BR/><BR/>It's hard to figure these things out. I think I'm one of those people who expects another shoe to drop, which is why I appreciate your comments. I think -- hope! -- we're both right. (I hope this for only personal reasons: I'm positioned for a further drop.)<BR/><BR/>As Huck said: Thanks for a great blog! (Found you through Tim Knight.)Gemma Starhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14020778102013980691noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-10232367420358783802009-01-04T00:32:00.000-05:002009-01-04T00:32:00.000-05:00Thanks for a great Blog.<BR/><BR/>HuckAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-62470068453115138902008-12-22T18:57:00.000-05:002008-12-22T18:57:00.000-05:00Do you think wave 4 is over or a decline and chop higher into the 930-1050 area. I personally went net short last week.<BR/><BR/>Also, nice blogrobertkudlahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01151101717150834918noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-41177380127393099332008-12-19T09:26:00.000-05:002008-12-19T09:26:00.000-05:00I saw that video over at the Slope of Hope. Very nice guitar work, vocal phrasing and musical interpretation. Get yourself into a studio and get a real job. ;)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-64474041354498036582008-12-18T23:01:00.000-05:002008-12-18T23:01:00.000-05:00This one really touched me. You have done an honor to Neil Young, your voice is beautiful and the video was deep.<BR/><BR/>I've seen your comments from Atilla's site, Tim's site and Evil's site. Thanks for all the great information. I've added you to my favorite blogs!<BR/><BR/>JanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-35320584450939650552008-12-18T11:42:00.000-05:002008-12-18T11:42:00.000-05:00That is hysterical. Very well done.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-47055539131146426662008-12-16T12:42:00.000-05:002008-12-16T12:42:00.000-05:00just like topaz...Erikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03791137433577690355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-38950176548972787812008-12-16T12:22:00.000-05:002008-12-16T12:22:00.000-05:00Do you mean Risk AVERSION 4.0? Or are you trying to be witty in an opaque sort of way?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-38992947956539590722008-12-15T05:14:00.000-05:002008-12-15T05:14:00.000-05:00Couldn't have said it better myselfjohnboyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17027953664059130826noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-16985516348869435192008-12-13T02:15:00.000-05:002008-12-13T02:15:00.000-05:00Just discovered your blog yesterday. Today's post is high quality stuff. I've also noticed that by pricing gold with a whole series of other assets, it appears to be overvalued in all of them.<BR/><BR/>Take a look at gold/copper, gold/platinum, gold/oil, and you'll see what I mean. I believe this is signaling a really bad world economy, but one that is long in the tooth already.<BR/><BR/>HenryHenry Beehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12176365362835822750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-50848248160106394452008-12-12T11:21:00.000-05:002008-12-12T11:21:00.000-05:00no problem andy. i love your work as well. cheers.Erikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03791137433577690355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-24715547267658262962008-12-12T04:48:00.000-05:002008-12-12T04:48:00.000-05:00love the blog and analysis. i hope you dont mind that i borrowed that dead cat bounce image, it was really terrific. i did leave proper referencing. please let me know if you'd like me to take it down.<BR/><BR/>andy<BR/><BR/>http://chaudhryandcole.com/Andy Colehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09865329200124565086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-32858297409527106102008-12-12T02:26:00.000-05:002008-12-12T02:26:00.000-05:00I've been sitting here waiting for this. <BR/><BR/>It's about time the punches started knocking out teeth.AphexMandelbrothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12674872868026044372noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-50133540449226028612008-12-12T01:05:00.000-05:002008-12-12T01:05:00.000-05:00to me, I think we will make new lows in Jan but sub 500 seems abit much for me...because we still have wave 4 bear mkt rally afterwards that should retrace 50% of the decline and then the multiyear final wave 5 plunge to take us to the final low...Im seeing the true bottom around 2012-2014 myself...all jmho of course...one thing for sure, 2008 will be the yr everything changes....GL.macthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15472912503728630790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-37919258605941744772008-12-12T01:02:00.000-05:002008-12-12T01:02:00.000-05:00thanks. as for the terminal low, that's anyone's guess. this is the mother of all adverse feedback cycles. it will exhaust itself when there's no one left to catch the bottom. there's an interm bottom approaching. who's to say it's at 700, 600 or 500.<BR/><BR/>we will have front row seats though.Erikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03791137433577690355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-53688018599734956542008-12-12T00:54:00.000-05:002008-12-12T00:54:00.000-05:00nice blog...read your previous posts...good intuition...you also seeing us going to 500ish within 4-6 wks???macthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15472912503728630790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-62998349400742317072008-12-11T23:20:00.000-05:002008-12-11T23:20:00.000-05:00Do you think the cat was dead before the bounce?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-49506681236548575962008-12-11T17:10:00.000-05:002008-12-11T17:10:00.000-05:00dude, there's, like, a giant pillow at the bottom of the abyss. <BR/><BR/>and the cat: he's got at least 8 more bounces.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1160040907181301073.post-51902244542499827612008-12-10T19:31:00.000-05:002008-12-10T19:31:00.000-05:00thanksErikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03791137433577690355noreply@blogger.com