Thursday, November 20, 2008

This Is A Bear's EKG

- Beautiful chart by Doug Short of and found on the Calculated Risk blog,

This should put things into perspective for those staring into the abyss. What is truly striking is the remarkably tight range of these great bear market declines (47.9 to 49.1). The entire decline of the Great Depression was almost 90%, however, there were strong bull runs of over 20% between the overall high and low.

One could postulate that the chart illustrates the temperature (velocity of decline) of this crisis in scale. In its current posture, it makes the technology bubble look like a walk in the park; it is more severe than the recession(s) of the 70's; but not as severe as the Great Depression. I believe the next few months in the equity markets will telegraph strong clues as to whether we are in for another depression or if it is truly "different this time".

No comments: