Thursday, December 11, 2008

A Christmas Carol

To date, this market has been visited by one ghost; the Ghost of Christmas Past. The Ghost's of Christmas Present and Future are approaching. And Just like Ebenezer, I am scared.

The powers that be, from the Fed to the ECB, to Macy's for that matter, would love for the Ghost's of Christmas Present and Future to remain there frozen in time. And just like Ebenezer, they are bound to follow the Spirit and witness the obvious truths. These are hard times. Strike that. These are dangerously hard times.

Let's not fool ourselves, the action in the futures market tonight and what's coming down the pike tomorrow morning was going to happen regardless of what was done in Congress. All Congress is doing is expediting it's delivery. For once they deliver. The irony is everywhere...

For those of you who were depending on this bailout to deliver a Christmas rally (they run the gamete of bulls and bears alike), shame on you. Does this feel and smell like a normal market? Christmas (curse tense), look what happened after the 700 billion dollar bailout was approved, the market's didn't exactly wake up to the upside and turn the corner, they imploded! Keep things simple. If you are not terrified at how this market has performed after receiving every hand-out imaginable, you need the phrase P O L L Y A N A (a synonym for Dennis Kneale?) tattooed to your forehead.

This is a Class-5 hurricane, throwing sandbags (the Fed, Congress, Interventionists) is inconsequential. The collective fear is the market's equivalent of Mother Nature. It will walk and romp where it wants. Follow the infrastructure in the charts, they show the GuidePosts along the way.

4 comments:

mact said...

nice blog...read your previous posts...good intuition...you also seeing us going to 500ish within 4-6 wks???

Erik said...

thanks. as for the terminal low, that's anyone's guess. this is the mother of all adverse feedback cycles. it will exhaust itself when there's no one left to catch the bottom. there's an interm bottom approaching. who's to say it's at 700, 600 or 500.

we will have front row seats though.

mact said...

to me, I think we will make new lows in Jan but sub 500 seems abit much for me...because we still have wave 4 bear mkt rally afterwards that should retrace 50% of the decline and then the multiyear final wave 5 plunge to take us to the final low...Im seeing the true bottom around 2012-2014 myself...all jmho of course...one thing for sure, 2008 will be the yr everything changes....GL.

AphexMandelbrot said...

I've been sitting here waiting for this.

It's about time the punches started knocking out teeth.