Monday, December 22, 2008

Europe & Russia - More Munitions in The Dump

I keep coming back to this same article and wondering when the kaka is going to hit the fan:

excerpts from the UK Telegraph - October 28th, 2008

...“This is the biggest currency crisis the world has ever seen,” said Neil Mellor, a strategist at Bank of New York Mellon. Experts fear the mayhem may soon trigger a chain reaction within the eurozone itself. The risk is a surge in capital flight from Austria – the country, as it happens, that set off the global banking collapse of May 1931 when Credit-Anstalt went down – and from a string of Club Med countries that rely on foreign funding to cover huge current account deficits."

My response: Deflation is like breaking a window on a commercial airliner - Anyone close to the break is going to be sucked through the bottle neck; and those that panic or are unable to get to an oxygen mask will die from the loss of cabin pressure.

..."America is the staid old lady in this drama."

My response: Jim Rogers eat your heart out.

..."Western European banks hold almost all the exposure to the emerging market bubble, now busting with spectacular effect. They account for three-quarters of the total $4.7 trillion £2.96 trillion) in cross-border bank loans to Eastern Europe, Latin America and emerging Asia extended during the global credit boom – a sum that vastly exceeds the scale of both the US sub-prime and Alt-A debacles."

My response: And that was written when oil was at $60.

..."Russia too is in the eye of the storm, despite its energy wealth – or because of it. The cost of insuring Russian sovereign debt through credit default swaps (CDS) surged to 1,200 basis points last week, higher than Iceland’s debt before G├Âtterdammerung struck Reykjavik. The markets no longer believe that the spending structure of the Russian state is viable as oil threatens to plunge below $60 a barrel. The foreign debt of the oligarchs ($530bn) has surpassed the country’s foreign reserves. Some $47bn has to be repaid over the next two months."

My response: Doesn't the phrase oligarchs remind you of the dark horsemen in the Lord of the Rings? Oh, and that was written when oil was at $60!

..."The threat to Britain lies in emerging Asia, where banks have lent $329bn, almost as much as the Americans and Japanese combined. Whether you realise it or not, your pension fund is sunk in Vietnamese bonds and loans to Indian steel magnates. Didn’t they tell you?"

My response: At least they didn't buy into the Euro!.

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