What the Fed, the Treasury and the Obama Administration have attempted is to bridle the bucking bronco that has become our capital markets. Although the markets have been under pressure as of late - it has been a direct result of premeditated ambiguity by various government officials towards the savage beast herself.
Now mind you this type of intervention could not work in most market conditions - i.e this fall. There was far too much selling pressure to be overcome by information and rhetoric. It was man verses nature and we all know who wins that battle. Where we are currently sitting is in the doldrums of the storm. The ship is in tatters, the crew is demoralized and looking for answers and leadership. Mass psychology now becomes either the crews downfall or secret weapon to survival. It is up to their captain to suspend the aroma of certain death and inspire a path towards safety. They just need to believe in the option of survival.
Let's see if Geithner can earn our respect and lead us to safer waters. I still believe this is an engineered test of the November lows. Time is of the essence to many businesses models from annuity to insurance companies and I believe the Treasury felt compelled to "induce" a weaker market in the short term to allow for a healthier market in the long term. No sustainable returns would be possible without a test of the markets lows from November.
I am drinking the cool-aid on deck with the belief that the world is not going to hell in a handbasket. From my perspective, and ironically - there are far to many idiots on that side of the fence right now.
Monday, February 23, 2009
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